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A Trump victory could benefit Asia and the shipping industry

In the Geopolitics and Trade podcast, presenter Punit Oza explores why a second term for Donald Trump as President could be beneficial for Asia and the shipping industry, while presenting challenges for the UK and Europe. Oza quotes Trump’s philosophy: “A real businessman or entrepreneur has no enemies. Once he understands this, the sky’s the limit.” This mindset helps explain why Trump’s approach, as a businessman, may favor Asia more than Europe.

Trump’s presidency was marked by a pragmatic, short-term view, with little regard for historical ties or long-term alliances. His past decisions such as pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement and questioning NATO show his focus on what benefits the U.S. immediately, often without consideration for established relationships. For Asia, this could mean continued trade partnerships, especially with China, where Trump’s tariff policies, while controversial, did not hinder trade volume. On the contrary, Trump’s focus on putting America first may push for more imports from Asia and further trade deals with its populous nations.

Europe, however, faces a different situation. With a declining population, internal divisions, and a strong commitment to climate policies that conflict with Trump’s stance, Europe risks being sidelined. Furthermore, Europe’s internal challenges, such as Brexit, energy security issues due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and disagreements over tariffs on Chinese goods, weaken its negotiating power with the U.S.

In contrast, Asia enjoys a more cohesive trade environment, with countries like China and India expanding their influence and successfully navigating regional challenges. With trade blocs like BRICS+ and ASEAN growing stronger, Asia is in a favorable position to engage in negotiations with Trump.

With Trump’s policies, such as increasing fossil fuel production in the U.S. and renegotiating trade deals, trade flows between the U.S. and Asia are expected to become more dynamic and volatile. This could boost coal and oil exports to Asia, benefiting the shipping industry, though the potential impact of tariffs remains uncertain. Additionally, the U.S. still relies on Asia’s vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries, making a trade conflict less likely.

While the shipping industry may face volatility, the prospect of stronger trade deals between the U.S. and Asia could mean longer shipping routes and increased ton-miles. With Trump’s focus on business-driven decision-making, Asia stands to gain from his policies, while Europe may find itself at a disadvantage.

Source: Seatrade Maritime