Welcome to the SCLOE Information

Blanked voyages fail to stabilize declining spot rates, while March GRIs face strong resistance

Blanked sailings and general rate increases (GRIs) have failed to stem the decline in Asia-North Europe freight rates, as post-Chinese New Year demand remains weak and slot utilization lingers below 95%.

On Friday, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index reported a 16% drop in Asia-North Europe freight rates, down to $1,805 per TEU compared to pre-holiday levels on January 29.

According to a Linerlytica report, blanked sailings have not kept pace with declining cargo volumes from most Far East origins.

“Although Hapag-Lloyd announced a speculative rate hike last week—targeting $2,500 per TEU and $4,100 per FEU from March 1—market resistance remains strong, with capacity utilization still below 95% and most post-holiday blank sailings concluding this week,” the report noted.

Meanwhile, lower cargo volumes in North Asia following the Chinese New Year have helped ease congestion at Chinese and South Korean ports, with anchorage capacity halving from its January peak of over 1.2 million TEU.

Over the past two weeks, 30% to 60% of regular sailings from Chinese ports have been blanked, leading to a slowdown in vessel activity and allowing ports to recover from recent congestion.

Asia-Mediterranean rates have held up better, dipping just 5% from pre-holiday levels to $3,036 per TEU. This resilience has been attributed to niche carriers shifting tonnage from the Mediterranean to meet Red Sea demand.

Transpacific rates—averaging $3,932 per FEU for Shanghai-US West Coast and $5,490 per FEU for Shanghai-US East Coast—are also expected to come under pressure.

Linerlytica noted: “Carriers have filed GRIs for March 1, ranging from $1,000 to $3,000 per FEU, after failing to implement mid-February increases. However, they will likely face familiar resistance as capacity returns en masse across all alliances following the February blank sailing programs.”

Source: The Loadstar